Forecasting The Weather

( Originally Published Early 1900's )

ALL of us, in a sense, are forecasters. We continually plan ahead and attempt to anticipate many things likely to happen. Among these is the kind of weather. Our forecasts are not always scientific, but that matters not so long as they come true. To foretell the weather seems to have been an ambition of man ever since he first appeared upon the earth. The earliest records of his activities reveal his interest in the stars, the constellations which they form, and their rising and setting. His curiosity was aroused too by the sun and moon and their behavior with respect to the earth. Based upon the positions of these bodies in the heavens and their phases, the ancients often ventured weather forecasts. Similarly, plant and animal peculiarities were related to probable weather occurrences. Out of the years of casual observations made by early peoples, combined with the development of superstitions, weather forecasting has carried through the ages until in modern, not to say very recent, times we have attempted to break away from the unscientific method in favor of the scientific.

The fascination of foretelling the probable weather in regions where variability exists has taken a firm hold upon us and we refuse to let go. The weather forecasters in the service of the United States Weather Bureau, in many in-stances, have served for twenty-five years and more, in spite of the fact that their remuneration has been relatively small. Occasionally they have been tempted to leave the service for more lucrative business, but the magnet-like attraction of the weather has always proved stronger than the lure of gold. As individual forecasters we peer out the window or doorway in the morning to "look at the weather" before leaving our homes. We observe the sky, or the wind direction, or feel the air, and decide to take an umbrella or to leave it at home, to wear a top-coat or to wear lighter clothes. We may look at our toy weather house and place our faith in the position of the old man or old woman poised upon a plat-form which swings one or the other into view to indicate the weather for the day. Or we may have a paper doll whose dress is filled with a chemical that changes the color of the dress from pink to blue or blue to pink, depending upon the weather probabilities. Again, we may be among those who have not been entirely satisfied with these general methods for forecasting and have provided ourselves with a barometer, and accordingly observe its movements from day to day or even hour to hour in order that we may be guided fairly accurately with respect to the coming weather. And then there are those whose enthusiasm for weather forecasting has converted them into students of the science, and they not only observe the fluctuating barometer but also gain access to the daily weather map which pictures the weather all over the country and enables one to tell with a high degree of accuracy just what weather is en route toward our locality. It will be worth our while to look in upon the mode of operation of the Weather Bureau in preparing the map, and to study the map itself with a view toward learning to forecast scientifically for our own purposes.

Every morning at 7 o'clock, central standard time, and every evening at 7 o'clock, men located in the more than 200 Weather Bureau stations "take the weather observations." They read the maximum and minimum thermometers, the wet and dry bulb thermometers (often called a psychrometer) , the barometer, the wind velocity and direction, calculate the relative humidity, note the percentage of cloudiness and the kind of clouds, measure the amount of precipitation if any has occurred during the preceding twelve hours, and observe any special phenomena such as thunder-storms, hail, winds of gale force, or other happenings. This information is then converted into a telegraphic code message and sent to the central office at Washington, District of Columbia, and other important Weather Bureau offices by a special circuit system, so called be-cause the telegraph lines are arranged in such manner that the messages pass through cities with Weather Bureau stations at virtually the same instant, and the telegraph operators in each city may all copy the messages simultaneously. It is a method which saves a tremendous amount of time in the distribution of the weather observations. Within two hours after the observations have been taken in all parts of the United States, Canada, and even remote regions such as Alaska, the messages from all stations are in hand at all offices which require them for constructing a weather map.

The messages are sent in code, not because of a desire for secrecy but because of economy and efficiency. The code itself is rather interesting, and a sample is quoted herewith to show how much information can be contained within a few words : York—ebbing sunbird rockgoat fitchburg pitfish.

DECODED

York = New York City.

ebbing = current temperature is 16° F., represented by bi.

sunbird = s stands for north wind, u for clear skies ; minimum temperature during the preceding twelve hours was 16° F., bi standing for 16. rockgoat = maximum temperature during the preceding twelve hours was 48° F., go designating this number.

fitchburg = current wind velocity 36 miles per hour and .10 inch of precipitation. fi means 36 and bu stands for 10. In this position in the message bu takes on the decimal form.

pitfish = maximum wind velocity 36 miles per hour from the northwest.

Obviously the succession of words and many of the words themselves convey no idea. They are made pronounceable in order to reduce the possible error in telegraphic transmission. The location, however, of each word in the group is significant, as can be seen from the two messages given here. The first word stands for current temperature, the next for wind direction, cloudiness, and minimum temperature, the third word maximum temperature, followed by wind velocity and precipitation, and special observations. After a little practice, Weather Bureau men become remarkably proficient in deciphering these code messages. The work of recording their meaning upon the map itself is practically automatic. Incidentally, the original map not only shows no names, but boundary lines of States and of the country are frequently mere fragments. Open circles only, indicate the location of cities. Every person who works on the map and most of the office force must be able to take it over in emergencies recognizes without a second's hesitation the names of all the cities for which there are circles. Here is a good method for learning one's geography of cities.

When the data are recorded and isobars and isotherms are drawn, a picture has been completed of the weather conditions as they existed at 7 o'clock. The isobars are the most critical lines on the map, for they fall into concentric systems which form the cyclones and anti-cyclones, the major features of which we have already described. The Weather Bureau men are scientists, but they are just normal human beings too, so, instead of thinking in terms of the some-what formal words cyclone and anti-cyclone, they refer to just ordinary "Lows and Highs" respectively. After all, these words are highly descriptive and by no means objectionable. In fact, the Weather Bureau prints them on the official map which is circulated every day. A "Low" is a low-pressure area and a "High" a high-pressure area. Since these terms are so convenient, we shall use them hereafter in place of cyclone and anti-cyclone.

If we look at a weather map we shall notice that the Highs and Lows alternate with each other. Neither two Lows nor two Highs ever appear together. Observation of a series of maps for several successive days will indicate further that Lows follow Highs and Highs follow Lows although not always along exactly the same paths. It is the succession of these pressure areas that enables the Weather Bureau forecasters to predict our weather.

Predictions might seem to be a rather simple operation, and in a sense they are. But we must not at first acquire too much confidence in our abilities, for many problems enter into the forecast. However, they are not the kind to discourage us, but on the contrary add interest to the situation and make the task of forecasting at times truly exciting. After the prediction we need merely to await the future twelve or twenty-four hours to learn whether or not we peered into the future with accuracy. Rarely are two days in succession just alike in the eastern half or two thirds of our country. This fact affords variety and it is said that "variety is the spice of life."

The weather maps on pages 112--113 show the characteristics of the Lows and Highs, or storm areas, as they are sometimes called. The black dots denote cloudiness. Notice that they are more numerous in the Low and on the border between it and the High than they are in the High or along its front. The shading covers areas where snow or rain has fallen during the pre-ceding twelve hours. Again, this precipitation is a characteristic of the Low rather than the High. Following the curves of the isotherms that is, the dotted lines we see them bending northward in the Lows and southward in the Highs. In other words, the centers of the Lows are warmer than those of the Highs.

We have already stated that these pressure areas move in a general west to east direction. The maps indicating storm paths clearly show this movement, but also emphasize the numerousness of the paths. Although the number of paths complicates the problem of forecasting, our initial statement relative to the general easterly movement of the storms offers a sufficient basis for enabling one to make a good many accurate forecasts.

The eastward movement of these storm areas cannot be too strongly impressed upon us, be-cause now and then one hears people "suppose that a storm which New York experienced yesterday must be the one we in Cleveland are having today." This does not happen. Instead, there may be a coincidence of weather succession which makes this seem to be the case. What has happened, probably, is the occurrence of two similar storms, one at New York and one west of Cleve-land, the latter reaching Cleveland in its normal easterly movement the day after the damage done by the New York storm has been reported in the newspapers. Then, of course, the uninformed try to "put two and two together," but unfortunately fail to get the right "twos." It is a rare occasion when a storm, except a tropical hurricane, moves westward. If it does, then such movement usually represents more of a storm expansion over a larger area than it does actual westward progress. We repeat that all storms, except the tropical hurricanes, travel from the west toward the east; the hurricanes, however, follow the latter course very soon ofter reaching the continental mainland.

Since the characteristics of these pressure centers do not change greatly as the eastward drift is in progress, we are fairly safe in assuming that the weather conditions shown on the map to the west of our location will be the conditions that we shall experience within from twelve to twenty-four hours. The rate of movement of the pressure areas is about from thirty-five to forty-five miles an hour. Sometimes it is much slower, but so long as the storm areas show no extraordinary conditions, we can count upon a normal movement. For example, the actual forecast issued by the Weather Bureau at Boston and based upon map A was "Fair and continued cold to-night." Map B, which was drawn the next morning, shows a verification of this fore-cast. The skies were clear that is, the weather was "fair"; and the isotherm of 10° F. was in close proximity to Boston, as it was the day before that is, the weather "continued cold." Some one may say, "That is very well for a single forecast that happened to prove correct, but what about most forecasts which are wrong?"

Are the forecasts inaccurate? To be sure, they are not always 100 per cent true; but the percentage is so much higher than is popularly thought that it is worth our while to investigate this situation. If we recall for a moment just when it is that we check up on the weather fore-cast, we shall have to admit it is usually when the forecast goes wrong and particularly when the error affects us personally. If we have planned a picnic and the forecast says fair weather, but it rains, we condemn the Weather Bureau forever; if the forecast calls for a freeze and we plan a skating party, but the temperature fails to drop and there is no ice on which to skate, again we may say, "I told you so, the weather forecast is never right." On the other hand, if the forecasts just mentioned proved correct and our fun goes off on schedule, do we say, "Hurrah for the Weather Bureau! It's always right"? No, we just take it all for granted and go our way. The fact is that the forecasts of the Weather Bureau approximate an 85 per cent level of accuracy, declining only for short periods when seasons change, that is, in the spring and autumn. Then it may drop to as low as 50 percent efficiency, while in mid-season it may rise to as high as 95 percent.

In fairness to critics of the Weather Bureau it should be said that their basis for interpretation of a forecast verification differs from that of the Weather Bureau, the latter favoring it-self somewhat. For example, when the bureau forecasts "Fair," it takes credit for accuracy so long as less than .01 inch of rain falls. In other words, it is conceivable that a drizzle lasting several hours would not total .01 inch. Such weather interpreted as rain by the man on the street is "Fair" for the forecaster. On the other hand, when a prediction specifies "warmer" or "colder" or "cold wave," the Weather Bureau demands that a change totaling a definite number of degrees must occur in order to verify the fore-cast. A cold wave in winter involves a drop in temperature of twenty degrees and to a definite minimum. This time the public might credit the forecaster with accuracy if the temperature dropped only fifteen degrees. Perhaps the credit on these occasions balances the discredit on the others first mentioned.

Why should there be any inaccuracies? For the simple reason that as yet we do not know enough about the behavior of the atmosphere to enable us to attain greater accuracy. Many perplexing problems beset the way of the weather forecaster. The Lows and Highs do not always follow the anticipated paths. They may shift their courses a little to the south or north, or they continue due east when the forecaster figured they would take a northeasterly course. The rate of movement at times is deceptive, either increasing or decreasing when not expected to change. Furthermore, local phenomena such as large lakes, high mountains, broad rivers, deep valleys, and other elements may not only influence the progress of the pressure centers but affect their moisture content. Finally, lack of enough observations from remote places in far northern Canada and over the oceans handicaps the forecaster. Yet, in spite of all these deficiencies, the daily forecasts are most gratifying and worth millions of dollars to the citizens of this country.

Great oceanic Highs and Lows nearly fixed in location seem to exert an important influence upon the movement of the Highs and Lows over the land. The oceanic pressure areas occur in couplets, there being a vast High centering in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands and a Low in the region of the Aleutian Islands. In the Atlantic a parallel couplet dominates, with a High concentrating in the locality of the Azores Islands and a Low near Iceland. These two pairs of pressure areas behave in nearly the same manner at the same time, and, according to some of our forecasters, wield a decided influence upon the rate of motion, the direction, and the intensity of the land storms. One reliable forecaster goes so far as to state that if he could have daily detailed reports indicating the conditions within these centers, he would need few of the land observations to enable him to improve upon the accuracy of present forecasts.

If forecasting is so serious a problem, how, then, may an individual not associated with the Weather Bureau hope to make even an approximate forecast? The answer is not hard. By equipping ourselves with a barometer an aneroid type will do very well a good outdoor thermometer, and then remembering the following simple rule, the major difficulties will be over-come. To know the location of the Lows and Highs immediately about us, in the absence of a weather map, stand with the back against the wind and stretch the arms out sidewise. Then move the right arm slightly forward and the left arm a trifle backward. The right arm will point toward the center of the High and the left toward the center of the Low. This method of locating the pressure centers is sometimes referred to as Buys Ballot's Law, named after a Dutch meteorologist. The aneroid barometer has a pointer which may be set by hand, in addition to a pointer which responds to pressure changes. Having set the two together at a given time, we can observe from the subsequent relative positions of the hands an hour later or any other time thereafter how much the air pressure has gone up or down, and whether it has moved rapidly or slowly, and of course exactly what the reading is. This in-formation, combined with that of the location of the center of the Highs and Lows about us and data as to whether or not the temperature is rising or falling, will enable any one with a small amount of practice to make ,a fairly good forecast. Then too, there are the clouds, which you will recall tell a considerable story.

Let us cite a case or two to demonstrate home forecasting. Suppose the wind is blowing from the southwest, the barometer reading 30.20 inches, having fallen from 30.35 inches during the past six or perhaps twelve hours ; the sky may be clear or beginning to show a few cirrus clouds ; the temperature is rising. With our back to the wind and arms outstretched, we find that the center of the Low is west-northwest of us, the High to the east-northeast. Our forecast for the next twelve hours would then specify increasing cloudiness and possibly rain, or snow if cold enough. The fact that the barometer had not dropped rapidly would point to a slow movement of the Low toward us, and accordingly during the next twelve hours the weather might be just unsettled, but within twenty-four hours we might justifiably look for rain or snow.

In connection with this forecast it would be well if we were to observe the relative humidity. There are special instruments for measuring the moisture content of the air, known as hygrometers, but for ordinary purposes where we do not seek a highly refined forecast these instruments are unnecessary. As previously noted in our discussion of atmospheric moisture, we can sense by our personal feelings the relative moistness of the air. If the day is muggy or misty, we know the humidity is up. If we moisten our hands, hold them in the outdoor air, and they feel cool or they dry rapidly, we may be certain the humidity is down. Associated with forecasting, an increasing humidity under the conditions just mentioned would support the expectation of showers, but if the humidity were moderate and showing no tendency to rise, cloudiness without rain would be more probable.

Suppose the wind is blowing from the northwest, the barometer reading 29.70 inches and rising, the clouds breaking enough to show a little patch of blue occasionally and moving fairly rapidly toward the east, the temperature falling a little, and the relative humidity decreasing. With our back to the wind and arms outstretched sidewise, we find the center of the Low located east or northeast of us and the center of the High to the west or southwest. The forecast for the next twelve hours would be clearing and settled weather with slightly lower temperatures.

Our first trial forecasts may prove total failures, but a little experience will accustom us to local conditions and a sort of sensing of atmospheric variations along with the instrument readings and wind observations, until a fair degree of accuracy is obtained. If it is possible to secure a weather map while these practice fore-casts are made, it will serve as an excellent check and further increase your efficiency. The effort soon becomes a joy and truly fascinating, for outside of the desert perhaps, or portions of the Pacific coast or Florida at given seasons, the weather is rarely the same on two successive days. There is constantly something different, something new one's interest cannot lag and then one has the satisfaction of being intelligent about the weather instead of wondering about it and displaying one's ignorance.

Today the world is filled with materialism. People want to know if things and ideas are practical. So they ask whether weather forecasting is of any real value. Now and then a congress-man threatens to vote against appropriations for the United States Weather Bureau because of a crop failure in his home district, or some other situation for which the Weather :Bureau could in nowise be held to blame. But since a congress-man is a congressman, he must have some attention, it seems, regardless of the merits of his thoughts, and forthwith the chief of the Weather Bureau must submit facts relating to the effectiveness of its service.

Untold millions of dollars are saved to the country each year. For example, a cold wave is headed out of the Northwest for the eastern and southeastern portions of the country. By timely warnings to all shippers of perishable commodities, freight cars may be heated, or round-housed or hurried to their destinations, to protect their contents against freezing. Growers of cranberries are cautioned against frost, whereupon they flood their bogs and save their crops. Railroads and street railways prepare to provide more power when cold-wave forecasts are issued, and to maintain schedules. If snow is included in the forecast, they make ready their plows to avoid costly blockades and delays. Workers on outdoor construction, owners of apartment buildings in which heat is supplied, restaurant-keepers, gardeners, farmers, fruit-growers, and a long list of other persons find advantages in proper warnings of cold waves or other sudden drops in temperature. The Weather Bureau estimates that as much as $3,500,000 has been saved as a result of a single cold-wave warning. In the California citrus-fruit district, growers have reported savings of $14,000,000 through timeliness of frost forecasts.

Hot-wave forecasts oftentimes are as significant as those of cold waves. Perishable fruits and vegetables shipped during the summer season must be properly iced. With the prospect of a sudden rise in temperature, shippers may instruct car-inspectors to ice cars more frequently or with larger quantities of ice than are normally required. A temperature above 65° F. encourages over-ripening. The problem of getting fruit and vegetables to their destination in proper condition becomes complicated, and hence the weather forecast of excessive temperatures serves as a fundamental aid to the success of the business. Many other illustrations could be given to show a similar dependence of perishables upon hot-wave forecasts.

Operators of amusement resorts, directors of outdoor Chautauquas, venders of hot-weather refreshments, farmers, retailers in dozens of different lines such as bathing costumes, electric fans, sport shirts, and other commodities find hot-wave forecasts of considerable advantage in planning their sales campaigns.

Another branch of the forecast service of out-standing importance is the river stage and flood prediction. Scientific advances enable forecasters to indicate several days in advance the exact height of the water for any point along the stream. The predictions always are within a few inches of the actual level and frequently are absolutely accurate. The saving to the public in property damage and life can never be exactly told. During the last frightful flood of the Mississippi and other rivers in its drainage basin in 1927, the forecasts of the Weather Bureau were nothing short of remarkable. To state that mil-lions of dollars were saved to the country in con-sequence is but a poor estimate. The efficiency of Dr. I. M. Cline, district forecaster of the United States Weather Bureau station in New Orleans, was so noteworthy that the Southern Pacific .

Lines presented him with a bronze tablet recording the following inscription:

To Dr. Isaac M. Cline, from the Southern Pacific Lines, in recognition of distinguished service in safe-guarding the lives and property of the people and public interests of Louisiana during the disastrous Mississippi valley flood of 1927.

Every day during the navigation season the flood stage of our navigable rivers is predicted by the Weather Bureau. This service is especially valuable along such streams as the Ohio or the Mississippi during the dry season, when the water becomes so low at times as to seriously interfere with navigation. River boats may time their movements with respect to the prospective stages of the river and thus economize in their time schedules and often avoid the danger of becoming grounded.

River-stage forecasts for streams that readily overflow afford business houses along the flood-plain time to remove goods stored in their basements or even on the first-floor level. On the other hand, when floods threaten, these same firms are saved the annoyance of moving their wares when the forecast announces that the crest of the flood will not rise sufficiently to endanger their stocks.

These forecasts aid fishermen, logging firms, power plants, and still other users of the river right of way.

Among the most spectacular services of the Weather Bureau may be mentioned the storm warnings for the Great Lakes and ocean ship-ping. Vessel men report that losses are only about 25 per cent of what they would be were they unaided by storm warnings. No cautious captain thinks of leaving port without first learning the latest forecast, and in some instances calling for a special forecast if the weather at sailing time happens to be particularly stormy.

Whenever the wind velocity is likely to reach thirty-three miles an hour, special storm warnings are hoisted at Great Lakes stations and along ocean coasts. Occasionally a warning is issued for light craft when the wind is likely to fall just short of this velocity. The warnings are telephoned or telegraphed to more than 300 points, including every port of consequence. Warnings are hoisted at these stations that is, flag signals are raised on special storm-warning towers, and at night lights are suspended from these towers. In addition, the forecasts are radioed for the benefit of ships already on the lakes or seas. These warnings are issued from twelve to twenty-four hours in advance of the expected storm. Their accuracy parallels that of the river and flood forecasts. Rare, indeed, is the occasion when a storm is not accurately anticipated by the bureau. In this connection, the efficiency of the service in the hurricane district of the West Indies and the Florida and Gulf of Mexico coasts deserves special mention. In re-cent years none of these storms has escaped the watchful eye of the Weather Bureau. Every one has been accurately predicted and millions of dollars of property loss to shipping has been avoided. The advent of radio, which affords prompt weather observations from ships, greatly increases the amount of data which are helpful in forecasting for large water areas and accordingly further improves the service.

Every ship keeps a log of weather conditions. Certain of them take temperatures of both sea and air every four hours and a few even oftener. The wind direction and velocity, the barometric pressure, and the state of the sky that is, the amount and kinds of clouds are all recorded. These are reported at the end of the journey to the nations interested. However, such information is useful for general research rather than for immediate forecasts. Hence by prearrangement some of these are sent by wireless to the Weather Bureau at Washington, where effective use is made of them. Recently experiments have been carried on in the making of weather maps on ships at sea through the receipt by radio of observations made by other ships and by land stations. While success is not as yet pronounced, it will no doubt crown these efforts as the methods become refined.

A new duty added to the many which have kept the Weather Bureau staffs extremely busy involves forecasting for aviators. When we entered the World War and found it necessary to develop the aerial branches of our army and navy, we found that aviators needed some elementary knowledge of the atmosphere in order to fly with added safety, and that flying could be facilitated if only we could know in advance the condition of the air at altitudes of 1,000 or 2,000 feet above the earth. The Weather Bureau was drafted into service at once to render all assistance possible.

Since the war, both military and commercial aviation have grown rapidly, and demands for weather forecasts have increased similarly. Today the number of weather-reporting stations has passed well beyond the hundred mark and no doubt will soon reach two hundred and more. Daily forecasts have been inaugurated with particular reference to probable wind direction and force at upper levels, and fogs. A sample forecast taken from a daily weather map issued at Columbus, Ohio, follows:

(From noon until darkness today)

Partly cloudy sky this afternoon, probably rain in eastern Tennessee ; moderate northwest and north winds becoming northeast in Tennessee and Kentucky up to a thousand feet and moderate westerly except strong west northwest diminishing in upper Ohio Valley aloft.

The system is being worked out in a manner to afford weather information to pilots at any hour of the day or night, providing data as to conditions at any landing-field about which the pilot wishes to know, and also the most recent information about the state of the atmosphere over any part of his route if he is following a standard airway. With the aid of the radiotelephone this information as well as special data can be communicated to the pilots in flight. This service is still in its infancy but growing rapidly. No one dares predict its ultimate development, nor the size of the contribution it will make toward the increase of the safety element in flying. In fact, aviation can hope to accomplish its maximum efficiency only in proportion to the successful development of weather forecasting for this particular means of transportation.

We have noted the methods employed by the United States Weather Bureau in making fore-casts for periods of from twelve to thirty-six hours. This organization has ventured in recent years to make a weekly forecast of a very general nature, based upon observations from widely separated parts of North America, from observations upon the seas, from Europe, from islands such as the Azores, the Bermudas, and Iceland in the Atlantic, from the Hawaiian and Aleutian Islands in the Pacific, from Siberia and other points in Asia. But even these slightly longer-range forecasts are issued with some timidity, and no claims are made for the same degree of accuracy as apply to the daily forecasts.

We have considered the possibilities for each one of us to forecast the weather for his own immediate purposes and for the joy of fore-casting in itself. We have observed the efforts by scientific men backed by reliable organizations such as the United States Government, the Smithsonian Institution, and the National Geographic Society to correlate variations in the sun's radiation with our weather at least a sea-son ahead. In spite of this recognition of the difficulties of long-range forecasting, even with the finest facilities which modern science affords, a few persons seem to feel that they possess supernatural powers, instinct, or some other peculiarity which enables them to do what others cannot.

Among the many would-be long-range fore-casters we have the publishers of some annual almanacs. These booklets, usually advertising a variety of medicine supposedly good for practically any ailment, are worth even less as dependable weather prognosticators than the medicines they urge us to use. A careful reading of the weather forecasts will reveal them to be highly general in character. For example, they may tell us that July in the Mississippi Valley will be hot, particularly the first and third weeks, with a slight moderation in heat during the second and fourth weeks. Thunder-storms will occur with fair frequency. Any one can make such a forecast with confidence, because such conditions generally do occur somewhere in the territory specified. These forecasts usually are based upon the average weather data for a large area during a period of from ten to twenty-five years. They assume a frequent repetition of the aver-age conditions. Since few persons have made careful studies of the weather or even investigated the difficulties associated with accurate forecasting, these statements, unfortunately, are too often accepted as possessing merit. It is reported that at least one writer of almanac fore-casts has become a millionaire.

A long-range forecaster basing his statements upon observations of the moon, which scientific men know have nothing whatever to do with our weather, is quoted in a Weather Bureau bulletin as having issued among his many forecasts the following:

The fifth storm period will be central on the 29th and there will be violent disturbance. Watch the barometer, and if you have a trembling wife and children clinging to you for protection provide some place of safety in which to resort in case of danger.

Can you imagine any one paying for such a forecast? One might offer something for it as a contribution to a magazine of humor, but certainly not as a serious comment.

Almanacs make interesting reading because of the curious statements one often finds in them. Then, too, they may give the phases of the moon, the signs of the zodiac, jokes, stories, and other miscellaneous matter. But long-range weather forecasts in almanacs must not be taken seriously. Happily, some of the modern almanac publishers recognize the folly of these forecasts and are not only eliminating them but taking steps to encourage their omission from all almanacs. One almanac takes the commendable attitude of accompanying its forecasts with the statement: "Forecasts prepared so long in advance are not, of course, strictly accurate." This shows progress at least.