Weather, Climate, And Business

( Originally Published Early 1900's )

"HIGH temperatures have kept not a few people away from the shopping districts."

"Three rainy and chilly days last week evidently induced more thoughts of kindling fires than of buying. Retail sales, on the upgrade during the last three weeks, slumped with the un-seasonable weather."

These are but two quotations from among many of daily occurrence in our public press. Trade journals carrying business reviews of the week, the month, or an entire season record such adjectives as "unseasonable," "abnormal," "excessive," "unusual," "seasonable," in their descriptions of the weather and correlations with the condition of business.

We may say that these observations are interesting; but what can a retailer do about the weather? Isn't he at the mercy of the weather that happens? Must he not accept what comes? If the discussion of the weather and climate up to this point has any merit in it, then we shall not have to answer these questions negatively. We shall feel that the retailer and other business directors are not nearly as weather helpless as they might seem to be. Let us be concrete and look at the ways and means available to business for capitalizing weather.

It is common knowledge that on rainy days retailers of umbrellas, rubbers, and raincoats display these goods. But isn't it really too late then to attract much of the passing. trade? A few people, not anticipating rain, may have left their umbrellas at home, and perhaps some of them are forced to buy another one. But others who have umbrellas or raincoats with them are not greatly interested in making further investments in this line of equipment. The time to have advertised equipment for protection against rain was be-fore the rain arrived: perhaps just as it was threatening. Some persons say this is impossible because we can't count on the weather forecast. But now that we have investigated the efficiency of both the United States Weather Bureau forecasts and our own, we know that the reliability percentage is high.

Some department-store advertising divisions keep in constant touch with the Weather Bureau for purposes of adjusting their daily news-paper advertisements in accordance with the prospective weather. Suppose an advertisement is inserted because the forecast specifies rain and rain does not occur! We can depend upon the public to quickly forget the fact that the "ad" and the weather did not agree. If umbrellas were advertised in anticipation of rain, the consumer forgets the correlation. If he sees the umbrella display, even though the weather be fine, he may say to himself, "I need an umbrella and I'll get one today so as not to be caught without one the next time it rains." If the forecast is good, the prospective customer is doubly impressed and, if in need, invests.

The advertising manager of one of Chicago's largest department stores has said :

It is our policy to study the weather forecasts quite closely. As soon as they are issued each morning, copies of the cards, together with the weather maps, are de-livered to the desks of all members of the firm and our merchandising and advertising executives.

Thus, in scheduling the advertising that is to appear the following day, the latest weather forecast determines to quite an extent our course of action.

Frequently when a sudden change in temperature or other condition of the weather is predicted, the local Weather Bureau is called on the phone about 9 P.M. in time for the advertising schedule to appear the following day, to be canceled if the weather forecast is of such a nature that this seems advisable.

Occasionally we have prepared, in advance, advertising of certain merchandise, the successful selling of which depends more or less directly upon the condition of the weather, ready for publication on short notice, as the inclosed advertisement of skating and hockey boots will bear evidence.

What this store does a few others likewise do and thousands of others could do.

Window displays adjusted to the weather of the hour is another valuable form of sales pro-motion. They should be operated to parallel the newspaper display. In fact, where stores deco-rate a window for a week's display and find it inconvenient or impractical to change it from day today, a "Weather Window" might be employed. In this window, or part of window, displays may be made sufficiently flexible in character to permit of economical change and may be profitably reserved for the display of such products as the current weather may suggest. This may necessitate even two different displays in a single day. For example, the day may open fine with bright sunshine suggesting happy thoughts and stimulating buoyancy of spirit. A tea-room or chocolate-shop dresses its windows with appetizing colorful salads and tantalizing soft drinks. Then the fickle weather decides to change its behavior clouds obscure the sun, the mercury slides down the thermometer tube, and old Boreas blows up a chill blast. The alert proprietor, having put his head out the door several times during the day, makes the discovery of a weather change about 3 P.M. and forthwith orders his window-trimmings changed. He then replaces cooling drinks with coffee, tea, or hot chocolate suggestions, coffee-cake and other enticing edibles which lure the shopper or other transient to pause awhile and imbibe something to warm himself and to provide enough energy to last until his evening dinner.

An analysis of the movements of passenger traffic on the street-cars of a city of 100,000 population in the northern part of the country revealed certain striking relationships between the weather vagaries and movements of the people. It was discovered, for example, that among all the different weather elements, precipitation accompanied by strong winds exerts the most influential check upon the number of passengers; that while rainfall without wind had less influence, snowfall without wind seemed to keep as many people at home as the combination of rain and a strong wind. A considerable drop in temperature along with a squally wind was next in order in effecting a decrease in passengers, while a strong wind alone showed less influence. Least effective in the reduction of the number of passengers likely to ride was a marked drop in temperature unaccompanied by any other disagreeable weather element. These influences were so definite that the street-car traffic could be forecast from day to day in accordance with the official Weather Bureau forecast.

Since these fluctuations influence the number of shoppers, an understanding of them may greatly assist store managers in the daily operations of their establishments. Certain adjustments of stocks or preparations for future sales may be begun on days when the manager knows patronage will be moderate, thereby relieving the last-minute pressure strain in the event of a probable active shopping day.

The radio industry, still referred to as an infant, yet one of the largest in the country, is highly sensitive to weather. No one who operates a radio receiving set needs to be told that weather conditions affect reception. Static is now a house-hold word. Yet the market is by no means saturated, and skilful salesmanship is still essential to convince families without receivers that they ought to possess one. Keen competition among the seemingly myriads of producers further demands salesmen of no ordinary ability. Among the best methods of selling is that involving demonstration. Here is where the well-informed salesman may save the day for himself. By acquainting himself with the weather conditions which favor good reception and those which pro-duce static, he can select a day or evening when conditions insure strong, clear-cut reception. While it is true that usually more than one evening's test is essential to determine the character of an instrument, yet the first night with it goes a long way in determining the prospects of a sale. A potential customer who is more than delighted with the first programs he hears undisturbed by static may be informed that occasionally returns will not be so good. Such in-formation is not likely to dissuade him, in the light of the first joyous evening he has already had. How the salesman can learn to pick out the right evening is told in Chapter XII.

Not only the retailer but the wholesaler as well can profit by associating his advertising with the weather. The wholesaler, however, must include a little more territory. He needs to give consideration not only to weather types in one city or one part of the country but throughout the nation, since his business usually is nation-wide. Accordingly, his advertising to bring maxi-mum returns should be directed with respect to a variety of conditions throughout the country. For example, a wholesaler of raincoats would be. unwise who would advertise to retailers in southern California urging them to stock heavily in this product. Likewise hardware wholesalers of electric fans could hardly hope to arouse much enthusiasm among dealers located in northeastern Minnesota close to the shores of Lake Superior, where uncomfortably hot days in summer are rare.

One of the country's largest wholesalers, located in the middle West, has made extensive use of weather data in his business. The manager tells of many profitable experiences, among which the following may be cited: One day in early December a northwest Low was observed on the weather map, followed by an intensive High which carried with it a cold wave. Up to this time the season had been mild and holiday goods such as skates, sleds, and the like received slight demand. Conference with the Weather Bureau con-firmed the suspicion that the cold wave, accompanied by snow, would be widespread north of the Missouri and Ohio rivers. The firm telegraphed the weather prospects to its salesmen throughout this territory, urging them to push the sale of winter goods, to inform the retailers that a sudden drop in temperature was due, and winter, for a few days at least, would be on in earnest. The effect was immediate. Sales were heavy and the wholesale house cleaned its shelves of large stocks which otherwise might have remained for another season.

The manufacturer too can profit by judicious use of weather and climatic data in his advertising. His field is even larger than that of the retailer and wholesaler. He sells not only throughout the nation but oftentimes round the world. Consequently his advertising efforts may be directed along both national and international lines.

In national advertising, whether it involves an appeal to the wholesaler, retailer, or consumer, in addition to a consideration of details already noted for retailers and wholesalers, the manufacturer should make note of the attitude of mind of the people with special reference to crop conditions. Weather favorable to bounteous crops places both the farmer and the general public in an optimistic mood. They are alert and likely to look with favor upon appeals to their purses. Luxuries in particular stand a much better chance of sales under these conditions than perhaps any other. Unfavorable crop weather, naturally, would induce just the opposite effect.

Some rather odd things happen in national advertising campaigns illustrative of wasted effort. For example, a winter scene showing villages half buried in snow serves as the background for a product advertised in a December magazine which reaches residents of subtropical Florida and cold Minnesota alike. Can its appeal be equally impressive to both groups of readers? Another "ad" urges the use of overshoes as a protection against catching cold or succumbing to pneumonia, and circulates among the peoples of the arid and semi-arid West as it does among those of the humid East and South.

In defense of this system we are told that national magazines cannot be so operated as to diversify their "ads" for different parts of the country; that it is cheaper to run the risk of bad taste or the accusation of ignorance than to attempt to adjust the advertising to the climatic environment. If it be true that the national magazines cannot make proper adjustments, then the advertisers should be more careful in the type of advertisements which they design.

In international trade, weather and especially climate may play an important part in sales. A manufacturer who succeeds in selling his products to the "four corners of the earth" assures himself of balanced output the year round and of a growing total in successive years. The accomplishment of such distribution requires intelligent investigation into climatic conditions everywhere. By so doing, a possible market may not be overlooked because a producer of top-coats, ignoring the hot desert on the assumption that it is never cool there, forgets that the night temperatures may be low and hence give rise to a condition favorable for warm coats. Careful climatic studies of the markets would have pre-vented a producer from experiencing the following incident : "An American traveling in Ceylon bought a well-known shaving-cream manufactured in the United States. His wife purchased a bathing-cap. The tube containing the cream was in such a state of decomposition that very slight pressure burst it open in several places. The green rubber band on the bathing-cap broke and fell off. Upon examination of the dealer's stocks it was found that all of the tubes were in a similar condition. All of the caps with green bands likewise were defective, that color apparently having a deteriorating effect upon rubber in Ceylon." The United States Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, reporting this situation, comments as follows : "It is not enough, therefore, simply to know the requirements of the population of a foreign climate. The chemical composition of your products and their containers must be such as to withstand exposure to it."

Oftentimes a particular product may not be adapted to a given climate, but research into the problem of modifying it to meet new conditions may lead to far-reaching consequences. A certain manufacturer of library paste attempted to sell his product in the Near East where portions of the region are desert. The rate of evaporation was so high that when. the paste was applied it dried before its adhesive qualities could be effective. To introduce much moisture at the time of manufacture would make the paste too thin and subject 'it to spoilage. Careful lab-oratory investigation solved the problem. But the happy turn did not end there. The new paste possessed characteristics which so improved its use in the domestic market that to-day more of this paste is used in the United States than any other. That's what may happen when one makes his market the whole world and endeavors to adapt his product to diverse climatic conditions.

Foreign advertising, like domestic, must be adapted to particular climatic environments. Leather shoe advertisements make almost no appeal to the natives of the Philippines or the Dutch East Indies, but rubber-soled, low-cut, canvas-top shoes for those warm humid regions meet with a highly favorable response. Wind-mills cannot well be urged upon the people of regions having calms; but, on the other hand, areas where the wind has free play, as on the Argentine prairies, the African veldt, or the Dutch lowlands, a market for the windmill can be logically anticipated. The manufacturer who puts forth the conscious effort to analyze these weather and climatic influences in the world's markets and canvasses them accordingly builds his business upon a secure foundation.

Weather and climate affect not only trade, both at home and abroad, but they exert a f arreaching influence upon our industrial life. In the construction industry, upon which great numbers of manufacturing industries depend, continuity of work is of prime importance. In regions enjoying a climate noted for uniformity of its seasons and without excesses of rain, snow, hail, cold, high winds, or other such extremes of weather, construction presents no difficult problems. But in regions of variable weather, construction is frequently handicapped, and accordingly a study of the relationship between the weather vagaries and the possibilities of building become of utmost significance. Every interruption to building operations occasioned by the weather usually means a loss to the laborer, since he is paid by the day, a loss in time to the builder, and sometimes a depreciation to the structure itself, which may be left in an unstable condition due to the cessation of work caused by a sudden weather change. Then, too, in territory where the interruption to all or nearly all construction is seasonal, the construction period itself assumes a "peak load" character, crowds the demand for material into a few months of the year, and forces prices to higher levels than if the demands had been spread over an entire year. This rush-order season may add further to construction costs by so crowding production as to depreciate the workmanship and delay deliveries of goods to the extent of causing a loss in time to the worker as well as the contractor.

In order to determine whether this unsatisfactory condition could be relieved, the United States Department of Commerce, Division of Building and Housing, investigated the relation between the weather conditions in nine cities of the United States and the possibilities of construction in each center in terms of weather. The following statements of the Department of Commerce are significant :

The effects of weather fall naturally into two classes —effects on the human element and effects on the materials used.

Some cold days merely add tang to the air that makes workmen act with increased zest ; others bring about numbed fingers, lowered vitality, and general de-creased efficiency. Rain may be of slight consequence or may so contribute to the discomfort of workmen that they are obliged to quit altogether. High winds may render certain types of work hazardous. Varying effects of weather bear more heavily on some trades than others. structural steel work is seldom stopped by cold alone. Bricklayers and other mason labor can work except when rain or snow is falling or when the temperature is well below freezing. Plasterers and lathers, the major part of whose work is done indoors, need not be hampered if the materials that they use are properly protected.

Cold of sufficient intensity to freeze concrete may ruin work which has taken much labor and expense to perform. Freezing weather may convert easily handled soil into stubborn crust. Rain may flood excavations, mire trucks, warp wooden concrete forms, and make painting or roofing impossible.

The above are what might be termed the negative features of winter construction. There are positive ways of overcoming them. Power shovels have shown their ability to conquer frozen ground. Pumps can keep excavations dry and, up to a certain point, raincoats and rubber boots can render work by laborers in the rain endurable. The use of tarpaulins to inclose concrete or masonry, or salamanders to keep it warm, and the heating of concrete aggregates are simple and effective measures of overcoming danger of freezing and of making workmen comfortable.

Owners who have authorized contractors to go ahead with such precautions have done so with the realization that there are distinct advantages to be gained. Land lying idle, and partially completed construction held up during the winter months, mean expenses for interest on the investment and for accrued taxes. Carrying on work without delays results in a revenue-producing building just so much earlier, thereby shortening this non-productive period. Contractors can arrange for orderly delivery of needed materials. Their organizations, built up at such expense, can be held intact, and their employees will appreciate the chance for steady work at what is usually the dull season.

Not only are workers associated with outdoor industries affected by the weather, but those engaged in indoor activities show great sensitiveness. We have already referred to the findings of Professor Ellsworth Huntington of Yale University, who investigated the effects of climate upon civilization, and now we turn again to his discussion of weather influences upon factory workers, conclusions from which every manufacturer can profit.

Humidity and temperature seem to exert a well-defined influence upon people engaged in manual tasks. Days of high temperature combined with high humidity are debilitating, while those with moderate temperature and low humidity prove somewhat irritating. We seem to do our best work when the temperature is in the neighborhood of 65 ° F. to 70 ° F. and the relative humidity about 60 to 65 per cent. However, these conditions are much more difficult to acquire in winter when our factories are heated than at other seasons. On cool to cold days the relative humidity in the out-of-doors generally is moderate to low. When the air is brought indoors and its temperature raised from perhaps 20° F. to 70° F. its relative humidity may drop to 20 per cent or less, virtually desert conditions. The effect upon the workers is that of reducing their vitality, making them easily stirred up by minor matters and causing them to commit errors readily. Obviously, one must conclude that if the maximum efficiency of factory workers, including office employees and employers, is to be maintained at a high level the "indoor weather" must be controlled.

In this modern day of invention control is possible. True, its initial cost is high, but there can be no doubt that numerous manufacturers do a sufficiently large business to warrant this expenditure, for which they certainly will be repaid. Smaller organizations can watch their heating and ventilating systems sufficiently closely to afford much relief from conditions otherwise unfavorable to maximum plant efficiency.

The indoor weather factor has an equally important effect upon employees in retail stores. A few of our largest department stores have installed equipment not only to control the temperature and relative humidity but also to wash the air. Store owners find several outstanding results attributable to control. In the first place the general health level remains high and loss of time due to ill employees is greatly reduced. Secondly, the employees work with greater enthusiasm and energy when the air they breathe is clean, moderate in temperature, and sufficiently moist to eliminate the drying of the membranes of the nostrils and the parching of the throat. Finally, the customers shop more leisurely in a pleasant atmospheric environment than in one in which the air is polluted and dry as the Sahara. They do not become readily irritated and neither do the employees.

In many ten-cent stores, where quarters are cramped and the crowds jam their way about, one may experience day after day vitiated air which cannot help but sap the energy of both clerk and buyer. Just overhear the comments of patrons and observe their actions. On such days they remark about "stuffy" air, and not infrequently, before going twenty feet within the store, they turn about and leave in utter disgust, happy once more to emerge into the reviving atmosphere of the world outdoors.

Where the weather is controlled, the sales' returns more than offset the expense of such maintenance. In small retail stores, where the number of shoppers is not very large, the cost of installing machinery to maintain ideal atmospheric conditions may be prohibitive. However, regulation by means of doors, windows, transoms, and air chutes is possible and, given a little attention, may greatly relieve an otherwise unfavorable condition. No argument is needed to support the theory that it pays to surround both buyer and seller with pleasant living conditions. We can-not hope to set the weather to our convenience, but we can do much to alleviate the handicaps of weather or to profit by its offerings.

Recent investigations both by the National Government and by private interests have revealed a close correlation between relative humidity and forest fires. Observations are made not only of atmospheric moisture but also of the moisture content of the soil, the duff (that is, the loose materials on the forest floor) , wind velocities, and air temperatures. The lower the relative humidity, the greater the fire hazard, seems to be one safe conclusion thus far. In the light of these studies and the confidence placed in them by insurance companies, private logging firms have shown much zeal in placing hygrometers throughout their properties and taking systematic readings. Insurance rates sometimes are adjusted to the care in this connection shown by the operators. When the relative humidity falls, in-creased caution is exercised in watching for fires and of course in preventing their occurrence if possible. Logging companies find a real monetary value in scientific weather observations and their utilization.

One of the largest of all businesses may use weather and climate advantageously if it will study its local situation carefully and then make intelligent use of the information. This institution is the Chamber of Commerce. In the total literature of all the chambers of the country, probably no subject receives more frequent notice than the weather and climate of the civic community. Yet no phase of civic advertising is discussed so unintelligently. There is a tendency either to exaggerate conditions or to stop short of telling as much as might be related to advantage. Often the application is in error or the treatment of the data displays total ignorance of what it all means.

A city claiming a population of over 100,000 situated in an ideal location with respect to the accessibility of raw materials for a variety of industries, dilates upon its climate and weather somewhat as follows: "Climate is an essential for industry and business; manufacturers know better than any one else the direct relation of climate and production." This statement is virtually meaningless. But the Chamber of Commerce booklet does not stop here. After assuring the reader that the temperature is notable for its evenness, it proceeds to say that the city "has months of warm to hot days with the nights in-variably cool," while "the thermometer seldom drops below zero" ; that while "winter temperatures are seldom severe," they are so "for brief periods only." If this chamber is appealing to people who think for themselves, how can it hope to convince them with such contradictory assertions? It happens that this city does possess a climate and a type of weather whose praises might well be sounded in a manner truthful, straight-forward, and attractive. It is a pity to waste ink on inane expressions. Such efforts reflect unfavorably upon the intelligence of the business men in that community.

Another Chamber of Commerce having faith in facts and confidence that prospective settlers and tourists who respond to true statements constitute the most loyal of a community's future citizenry, has issued a booklet prepared by a climatologist in which the climate of the city is presented accurately, graphically, and enthusiastically. Furthermore, comparative data based upon records of the United States Weather Bureau, which may be easily verified by any one, enable the reader to judge for himself of the climatic merits of the city. This booklet has gone into several editions and proved one of the most valuable pieces of advertising yet issued by this aggressive chamber.

In the introduction to this booklet the following paragraph appears presenting in brief the objective of the chamber in publishing it:

The primary object in compiling and arranging the information contained in this publication is to present in readily accessible and easily understood form the facts concerning the climate of Smithtown.

The data should be valuable to every one. To the manufacturer, employer, and agriculturist generally, because of the extremely favorable and energizing weather conditions which permit, promote, and produce the highest quality of labor efficiency of whatever nature, whether mental or physical, as there is almost an entire absence of the humid and debilitating heat so prevalent elsewhere in the warmer months. For the game reason our summer weather which runs to balmy days and restful nights should appeal to the tourist, health seeker, and vacationist.

These statements are followed in the text by supporting data, and, giving the booklet a somewhat official stamp of approval, is the caption on the title page:

Preparation Authorized and Data Approved By CHARLES F. MARVIN, Chief U. S. Weather Bureau.

Here we have a most intelligent and effective utilization of weather data by an alert Chamber of Commerce.

The value of an appealing climate cannot be overestimated. If two localities are under consideration by a manufacturer, a dealer, a retired merchant, a truck-gardener, or any other type of individual interested in the possibilities of re-locating his interests, other things being equal, he will more than likely choose the town possessing the "ideal" climate. A region characterized by cool summers where labor can function efficiently all day every day is in most instances preferred to one of excessive heat. Where winters are severe, obviously a considerable amount of fuel must be burned, and fuel may represent a large proportion of the cost of living. If one presented the bald record of long cold winters, with-out interpretation, an injustice might be worked upon a city, because some cities are located in a position where fuel is so cheap as to offset the apparent advantage of some other city with shorter winters but more costly fuel. Some of the Great Lakes' cities, for example, pay less for anthracite coal than do cities away from the lakes, the former enjoying the advantage of low freight charges and efficient dock machinery for handling the coal carried in large quantities by lake steamers and frequently carried as ballast. Another offset to high fuel consumption often-times is high wages. High wages entice workers but may scare off prospective manufacturers. But the latter's fears may be alleviated by knowledge of the efficiency of the worker in the region of a cool climate. So winter data need not be hidden but may safely be broadcast, provided an intelligent interpretation accompanies them.

Lighting costs constitute an important item in the expenditures of factory, store, and home. The greater the number of hours of sunshine, the less artificial light is necessary. One of the most valuable all-around assets which man can desire is sun shine. Too few communities appreciate this fact and fail to benefit by giving proper publicity to their sunshine data. Industrial centers may profit by such publicity as much as summer resorts, one of whose primary resources is sunshine.

In this day of the automobile and good roads, accessibility to a city is more important than ever before. But roads are good not alone in proportion to the materials and engineering skill put into them but also in relation to the effect of the weather upon them. Frequent rains which keep them slick and slippery, or ice, sleet, and snow that make them treacherous or obstruct them entirely, impair the ease with which communication may be maintained between a city and its environs. Freezing and thawing menace the road structure. Temperatures which fluctuate between a few degrees above freezing and a few degrees below freezing are infinitely harder upon a road-way than temperatures continuously below freezing. Thus a city in a territory of cold winters may actually find the cost of road upkeep less than where winters are mild. The Chamber of Commerce which analyzes the relation between possible weather handicaps and open highways may discover valuable data for dissemination.

Is the weather of the community conducive to sports? If so, to what kinds? Are the sports of the out-of-doors type the year through; do they alternate from the summer type to the winter variety, or is the weather conducive to one class of sports only? The non-resident public wishes to know these facts. People may be induced to come to a city as visitors in summer, autumn, or winter to partake in particular activities which the weather may then favor. They may decide to become permanent residents because of the de-lights derived from play which a given season encourages. Hunting in close proximity to a given city, or skating, skiing, snowshoeing both in town and the country round about, swimming, boating, camping these and dozens of other sports appropriate to the season of a certain center create in people a desire to live where they may enjoy one or more of them. Some chambers look upon these matters as commonplace, as mere incidentals, while others appreciate their significance and let the public know about them.

The list of suggested uses to which weather data may be put in business has by no means been exhausted. Every field of endeavor has its particular peculiarities and special problems. Each needs careful study, but few are the types of business small or large that cannot profit from a study of the relation existing between themselves and weather or climate.